Joe
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Well, jobs numbers are down the most since last time Trump was POTUS
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My penis is too big.
Joe
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Trump fired the Messenger, wants to cut the Fed Rate by 3%
Josh Lipton
Economists have been warning that President Trump's trade wars would depress growth and hiring, Trump disagrees, but does the weakness in the latest jobs report give these warnings more weight? Here with more is Yahoo! Finance senior columnist, Rick Newman, Rick.
00:21 Rick Newman
Hey Josh, um, well, yeah, I think what we're seeing in the economy, not just the jobs report, but also the GDP report on economic growth for the first half and other things, I mean, this is exactly what you would expect to happen when you, uh, put tariffs on $3 trillion worth of imports, which makes them more expensive, which means spending goes down, investment goes down, hiring goes down. So let's just talk about the job numbers for a minute. I mean, a very weak showing, uh, for July and then the big revisions for the two prior months, um, job growth is way, way below, uh, what it was this time, uh, last year and that is what you would expect, uh, companies to do when we have so much uncertainty. I mean, that's the, um, that's the uncertainty premium which is companies just sit tight. Uh, it's going to show up also in spending and investment in coming months. So, um, it's not surprising to anybody except, I guess, Donald Trump and we, uh, we, I think we can infer that he's getting jittery because of this ridiculous move that he fires, you know, he shot the messenger by firing the commissioner of, uh, the Bureau of Labor Statistics. The problem is not the data, the problem is the policy, um, but we're going to trundle forward with this, obviously for many more months.
02:36 Josh Lipton
And Trump posted on social media in response to the jobs report, Rick, uh, drop the rate. He posted. Um, given the weakness you're pointing out to there in the GDP report, the jobs report, Rick, is he right? Is this a reason now, get, that the Fed should, should get going and drop the rate?
03:16 Rick Newman
I mean, that's what the market thinks. I mean, the odds of a rate cut in September shot up. Uh, I think it's now over 80% likelihood according to, uh, the CME Fed watch tool. Um, but the Trump is still not going to get what he wants from the Fed because he wants the Fed to cut by three percentage points tomorrow, um, and, um, that would be an unprecedented and panicky move which the Fed is not going to do. I mean, if we see, you know, more terrible data like we saw in the jobs report, I guess it's reasonable that the Fed could cut by half a point rather than the traditional quarter point cut in, uh, September. Um, but you know, I'm, I'm, I don't think it, you know, let's say the Fed is a little bit behind. There's all this speculation. Should the Fed have seen this bad jobs report coming? Um, it doesn't make that much difference if the Fed cuts in July or September. And remember, they, they don't, they, they can cut quickly if they have to. Um, but you know what? Broaden it out, I'm still not seeing anybody predicting a recession and I looked at the, uh, Polymarket, um, prediction odds today. They're, excuse me, recession odds, they're very low. I mean, they got as high as 67%, I think, in April when Trump was at maximum tariff. Uh, they're now, I think below 20%. So people are not freaking out about a recession, um, we just are getting a soft patch here. We'll see if it gets worse.
Josh Lipton
Economists have been warning that President Trump's trade wars would depress growth and hiring, Trump disagrees, but does the weakness in the latest jobs report give these warnings more weight? Here with more is Yahoo! Finance senior columnist, Rick Newman, Rick.
00:21 Rick Newman
Hey Josh, um, well, yeah, I think what we're seeing in the economy, not just the jobs report, but also the GDP report on economic growth for the first half and other things, I mean, this is exactly what you would expect to happen when you, uh, put tariffs on $3 trillion worth of imports, which makes them more expensive, which means spending goes down, investment goes down, hiring goes down. So let's just talk about the job numbers for a minute. I mean, a very weak showing, uh, for July and then the big revisions for the two prior months, um, job growth is way, way below, uh, what it was this time, uh, last year and that is what you would expect, uh, companies to do when we have so much uncertainty. I mean, that's the, um, that's the uncertainty premium which is companies just sit tight. Uh, it's going to show up also in spending and investment in coming months. So, um, it's not surprising to anybody except, I guess, Donald Trump and we, uh, we, I think we can infer that he's getting jittery because of this ridiculous move that he fires, you know, he shot the messenger by firing the commissioner of, uh, the Bureau of Labor Statistics. The problem is not the data, the problem is the policy, um, but we're going to trundle forward with this, obviously for many more months.
02:36 Josh Lipton
And Trump posted on social media in response to the jobs report, Rick, uh, drop the rate. He posted. Um, given the weakness you're pointing out to there in the GDP report, the jobs report, Rick, is he right? Is this a reason now, get, that the Fed should, should get going and drop the rate?
03:16 Rick Newman
I mean, that's what the market thinks. I mean, the odds of a rate cut in September shot up. Uh, I think it's now over 80% likelihood according to, uh, the CME Fed watch tool. Um, but the Trump is still not going to get what he wants from the Fed because he wants the Fed to cut by three percentage points tomorrow, um, and, um, that would be an unprecedented and panicky move which the Fed is not going to do. I mean, if we see, you know, more terrible data like we saw in the jobs report, I guess it's reasonable that the Fed could cut by half a point rather than the traditional quarter point cut in, uh, September. Um, but you know, I'm, I'm, I don't think it, you know, let's say the Fed is a little bit behind. There's all this speculation. Should the Fed have seen this bad jobs report coming? Um, it doesn't make that much difference if the Fed cuts in July or September. And remember, they, they don't, they, they can cut quickly if they have to. Um, but you know what? Broaden it out, I'm still not seeing anybody predicting a recession and I looked at the, uh, Polymarket, um, prediction odds today. They're, excuse me, recession odds, they're very low. I mean, they got as high as 67%, I think, in April when Trump was at maximum tariff. Uh, they're now, I think below 20%. So people are not freaking out about a recession, um, we just are getting a soft patch here. We'll see if it gets worse.
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The Prowler
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No.
I had a baseball practice.
You need to refer to my Schedule threads when you have these questions.
The Prowler
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Joe
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Gold I bought in 2024 is up 60%+ Lex @The Prowler
So that beats the TSX or the US stock markets, Lex.
Same time, I'm getting interested in the TSX & other Stock indices, Lex.
However...I think they're too high at the moment. Doesn't seem logical that the Stock Market could keep blowing off all-time highs when the US economy in particular, is projected to slow down.
That's why I'd rather wait til later this year before buying anything Lex
While the markets may not crash, they could dip - say upwards of 20%?
So I figger that may be a better time to buy in.
Just a a hunch, no real scientific analysis here.
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Tariffs Are Great – If You Like Raising Prices, Undermining Jobs, and Inhibiting Innovation
An Essay by Matthew Rooney, Managing Director of the Bush Institute-SMU Economic Growth InitiativeAmericans — and especially the middle class — are at risk of economic consequences of a protectionist trade policy. The U.S. should look to history for a lesson in the importance of more open global trade.
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I’ll take ‘What precedes the bubble bursting?’ For $3.00, Alex.
The Prowler
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Oh, look, the Left's perennial idol, Will Could-Gonna.
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