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'I think I am actually the most humble person.”
- Reaction score
- 14,796
NFL 2026/27
- Thread starter Holliday 3000
- Start date
OP
OP
- Reaction score
- 757
- Location
- Shangri La
Detroit saved money on defense by using cardboard cutouts.
OP
OP
- Reaction score
- 757
- Location
- Shangri La
7:30 EST, NBC - Notre Dame goes 3-0 on way to National Championship.
I will be fishing this afternoon.
I will be fishing this afternoon.
OP
OP
- Reaction score
- 757
- Location
- Shangri La
Dame in command early, 10-0 and a pic. Still 1st Q.
. Wrong thread though, right?
. Wrong thread though, right?
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OP
OP
- Reaction score
- 757
- Location
- Shangri La
NFL favorites cover the spread roughly 48% to 50% of the time long-term (about 48% over a 10-season sample, close to a 50/50 split due to market efficiency). []
Quick Facts on NFL Spread Coverage
Breakdown of NFL Betting Metrics
Quick Facts on NFL Spread Coverage
- Straight-up win rate for favorites: ~66% to 75% (depending on size of spread).
- Against-the-spread (ATS) rate: ~48%–49% (market makers price lines tightly, landing near coin-flip results).
- Home vs. away split: Home favorites cover slightly less often (~46–40% in some specific historical slices) compared to baseline expectation, while road/underdog splits shift slightly.
- Break-even standard: Standard -110 juice requires a 52.38% cover rate to turn a profit, meaning raw 48% cover rates lose money long-term. [, , , , ]
Breakdown of NFL Betting Metrics
| Metric | Historical Average / Rate | Notes |
|---|---|---|
| Favorite Win Rate (Straight-Up) | ~66.2% – 74.7% | Higher for heavy favorites (-4 or more) |
| Favorite Cover Rate (ATS) | ~48% – 49% | Varies by year (e.g., individual seasons hit ~53.9% rarely) |
| Break-Even Win Rate (-110 juice) | 52.38% | Required to beat standard vig |
OP
OP
- Reaction score
- 757
- Location
- Shangri La
So what's worth watching today?
. We got KC / Indi later tonight on N Beatle C.
. We got KC / Indi later tonight on N Beatle C.
- Reaction score
- 1,450
- Location
- South Central PA
Commanders and Cowboys might be a good one to watch.
Alfred E. Neutrump
What, me worry? No, I'm too sleepy.
- Reaction score
- 3,918
- Location
- Milwaukee
Shocker of a game between the Bears and Vikings. Reggie will be wearing a black armband.
- Reaction score
- 2,192
- Location
- Chicagoland
Fucking cunt Vikings! Caleb pulled a hammie too. Fuck!
Alfred E. Neutrump
What, me worry? No, I'm too sleepy.
- Reaction score
- 3,918
- Location
- Milwaukee
I heard. Hopefully, he isn't out for long.
OP
OP
- Reaction score
- 757
- Location
- Shangri La
Terrible end to the half for Washington.
. Take the points to begin with.
No need to go all or nothing in that situation
but then the injury to Daniels.
. Take the points to begin with.
No need to go all or nothing in that situation
but then the injury to Daniels.
- Reaction score
- 1,450
- Location
- South Central PA
Always take the points. That's my motto. Don't get too cute.
OP
OP
- Reaction score
- 757
- Location
- Shangri La
Giants / Rams 8:15 Eastern on NBC.
. Rams are -6.5 favs.
Is that too much?
Always a big Matt Stafford fan but I wouldn't mind if he threw a couple of picks tonight.
Go G-Men !
. Rams are -6.5 favs.
Is that too much?
Always a big Matt Stafford fan but I wouldn't mind if he threw a couple of picks tonight.
Go G-Men !
Alfred E. Neutrump
What, me worry? No, I'm too sleepy.
- Reaction score
- 3,918
- Location
- Milwaukee
Forgive me, but I did pick the Rams and if they win, I finish the weekend at 9-7.
OP
OP
- Reaction score
- 757
- Location
- Shangri La
That's okay. I know it was a cold and calculated decision and not expression of other bias.
OP
OP
- Reaction score
- 757
- Location
- Shangri La
It's on A Beatle C btw.
. Dart down on the first drive...knee injury of some sort.
- Reaction score
- 2,192
- Location
- Chicagoland
I just turned it on. The Dart kid got hurt already? Sorry, Holli. Sucks when that happens.
But I did pick LA.
OP
OP
- Reaction score
- 757
- Location
- Shangri La
...and Winnie never threw a catchable ball in relief.
Giants will have to keep it on the ground and now penalty themselves out of FG range.
This is not looking good so far.
OP
OP
- Reaction score
- 757
- Location
- Shangri La
Time for Winnie to hang it up.
. WTF?!!!
. WTF?!!!
- Reaction score
- 2,192
- Location
- Chicagoland
Man! You're backup QB totally sucks, Holli.
OP
OP
- Reaction score
- 757
- Location
- Shangri La
Let me tell you, something is very wrong with him.
I have never seen a QB throw as badly as he is.
Wide open receivers, he can't get the ball to them. WTF?!!!
He needs to come out and the next up gets a chance.
- Reaction score
- 2,192
- Location
- Chicagoland
... and then you get down to the goal line and that Skatterpoo kid - the most exciting player on your team - is standing on the sidelines. Man! Sorry, dude, but your Giants suck AGAIN.
OP
OP
- Reaction score
- 757
- Location
- Shangri La
- Reaction score
- 1,450
- Location
- South Central PA
How can they not have Ricard and Skattebo on the field in that situation?
I was 13-3 this week.
Alfred E. Neutrump
What, me worry? No, I'm too sleepy.
- Reaction score
- 3,918
- Location
- Milwaukee
Damn, you're good.
Fuck the spread, I bet to win this week, made a few $$$
