Why Putin will probably eventually win in Ukraine and why he won't stop there.

[Oerdin]

Since at least Catherine the Great Russia has realized its borders are undefendable. The Eurasian plain is entirely flat and lacking in good defensible features, it is to long and worse too wide to fully man effectively so for centuries Russia's leaders and strategic leaders have tried to "defend Russia by pushing its border further out" (to quote Catherine the Great). First Tsarists then Soviets and now Putin is obsessed with this goal. That means Russia believes it must control nine gaps in mountain ranges in order to defend itself. This is made vastly more urgent for Russians due to their demographic collapse which means Russia simply won't have the young male population to do mass mobilization like they did for the Mongols, several wars with the Polish-Lithaunian Commonwealth, Napoleon, German Kaiser, and Adolf Hitler. Their only hope is to secure the defensible gaps and concentrate their limited manpower there.

In 1991 after the breakup of the Soviet Union newly independent Russia controlled just one of those nine gaps. The USSR through the Warsaw Pact controlled all nine. Since gaining power Putin has successfully gained control over six of those gaps, if he goes through Poland and seizes Moldova then he will have eight. The last one is in Poland just east of Warsaw. Ukraine is just in the way and is a bonus. If Putin is successful in Ukraine and he very well may be, as he knows he must win or his nation is strategically dead, then Maldova, Poland, and the Baltic states will be his next goal. For Russians it is an existential crisis to reach those defensive choke points.

BTW this is a good video and I agree with most of it. Please discuss. What do you think the policy should be for the West wrt Russia's strategic goals?

 

[Lokmar]

I cant imagine why Russia is concerned for their national sovereignty. They have enough nukes to destroy the entire continent several times over. Their mechanized military is pathetic shit tho! I'm astonished how shitty they are. If not for their nukes, we could take over Russia like we did Iraq.

 

[Oerdin]

I think it is pretty obvious Russia poorly planned and thought they could do a quick light war to decapitatethe Ukrainian government similar to their fast strike on Crimea in 2014. What they didn't understand was that eight years old limited fighting in eastern Ukraine had fundamentally forged a Ukrainian national identity and made even ethnic Russians n Ukraine feel like Ukrainians and understand that Putin was their enemy. Western arms and training over those dove years helped a lot as well so that Ukrainian defenses were much stronger than expected. Ukraine is still very weak on the offense. I don't see that changing soon though time is helping the Ukrainian getting better though they are lacking many offensive weapons.

I see Russian regrouping and doing enforcement attempts in the east. They will come from the north and south hoping to meet up around the Depot area thus encircling and cutting off about half of the Ukrainian forces including its best equipped and trained units. Then it pushes west eventally into Maldova. After that it has three to five years to digest before the big push into Poland and the Baltic states. The west needs to turn Ukraine into a blood bath for Russia in order to delay or prevent the main event. Is that possible?

 

[Oerdin]

I cant imagine why Russia is concerned for their national sovereignty. They have enough nukes to destroy the entire continent several times over. Their mechanized military is pathetic shit tho! I'm astonished how shitty they are. If not for their nukes, we could take over Russia like we did Iraq.

There is that. Nukes should make them feel easier but their limited leadership, entirely generals and former Soviet KGB men, seem obsessed with the grand strategy of filling the nine gaps as Russia has done for centuries. Putin has spent 23 years working towards that goal progressively. He has also spoken and written about the need for this extensively. It is like a modern version of Mein Kempf in many ways as he has clearly stated his strategic goals of conquest.

Putin also clearly can see he needs Communist China as an ally but he knows as things stand he'd just be the CCP's vassal thus his desire for a "Twilight War" to strength Russia's position before the demographic collapse is complete so that he can become a more equal partner. He sees this as a do or die imperative for Russia. They either due it now PR demographic collapse means Russia can never do it and thus will forever remain strategically vulnerable and cannot resist the next Napoleon or Hitler or Mongol invasion.

 

[Lokmar]

I cant imagine why Russia is concerned for their national sovereignty. They have enough nukes to destroy the entire continent several times over. Their mechanized military is pathetic shit tho! I'm astonished how shitty they are. If not for their nukes, we could take over Russia like we did Iraq.

There is that. Nukes should make them feel easier but their limited leadership, entirely generals and former Soviet KGB men, seem obsessed with the grand strategy of filling the nine gaps as Russia has done for centuries. Putin has spent 23 years working towards that goal progressively. He has also spoken and written about the need for this extensively. It is like a modern version of Mein Kempf in many ways as he has clearly stated his strategic goals of conquest.

Yea, I can understand the thinking and realize old habits die hard.

Warfare today isnt hindered as much by terrain. Even burying yourself in a mountain wont help you if you're targeted. Russia could take all the nine gaps and still be just as vulnerable to our weaponry.

 

[Oerdin]

Speech before the U.S. Army war college with discussion and comment.

 

[Lily]

Have you broken up with Andy Ngo?

 

[Admin.]

Have you broken up with Andy Ngo?

Not sure, but it seems like Putin's invasion is not meeting the USSR's expectations.

 

[Lokmar]

Have you broken up with Andy Ngo?

Not sure, but it seems like Putin's invasion is not meeting the USSR's expectations.

I'm starting to think Iran could give em pointers.

 

[Joe]

Speech before the U.S. Army war college with discussion and comment.

Russian military hardware sure seems inferior to American made stuff @Oerdin.

Russia's getting destroyed in the field, eh?




They've lost so many tanks, planes, etc.
The Russians are getting clobbered and they're now trying to find a way out.

Just as one American General predicted, the Russians would run out of food, supplies and even ammo in just 10 days, then would be forced to retreat since they counted on an easy early victory.




They kin talk/think big, but this isn't World War II where Russian hardware had some degree of parity with the Germans. Some of the Russian made stuff was quite good apparently. But this time, their hardware is totally inferior to the NATO stuff which is light years ahead of the Russians. They're just getting totally outclassed.

Worse, yet, the Russians are so disorganized and their generals seems so inept.

So...unless they use nukes or chemical warfare and kill off every last Ukranian, I don't see how Russia can conquer the Ukraine.

And while the Russians are regrouping, the Ukrainians will acquire better weapons in the meantime, bolstered by NATO support.

 

[Joe]

I see the problem of the Russians is they're using World War II or centuries old tactics to fight Ukraine. Which is...just push as many soldiers, tanks, etc at them hoping to overwhelm the Ukrainians with numbers. But the Ukranians are using 21st century tactics and superior weapons to fight back.

 

[Frood]

:facepalm:

This thread...... muppets....

 

[Seamajor]

I think Putin’s in trouble. He has health issues, and Trump os outta the picture, although ya never know.

 

[Joe]

I think Putin’s in trouble. He has health issues, and Trump os outta the picture, although ya never know.

The look on his face lately is that of a man running scared.

He looks like a frightened fox.
He'll have nowhere to run or go.
Plus he made so many enemies.

If he goes down maybe North Korea or China'll take him.

 

[Lokmar]

He's got nukes and chemical weapons and those might just be the only way he can win this. They'll bleed to death if they keep going like this.

 

[Admin.]

 

[Oerdin]

The west needs to not just give all of it's Soviet era weapons to Ukraine but we also need to immediately start training Ukrainians in modern Western systems because the Soviet era stuff is going to quickly get used up.

 

[realgrimm]

 

[SHAMPAIN]

I cant imagine why Russia is concerned for their national sovereignty. They have enough nukes to destroy the entire continent several times over. Their mechanized military is pathetic shit tho! I'm astonished how shitty they are. If not for their nukes, we could take over Russia like we did Iraq.

EXACTLY, take the nukes away and the US alone would demolish them but if it comes to that it'll be allies not just the US, Brits are always with America when it comes to war...

 

[Oerdin]

A further breakdown of what the heartland theory is for those who are unfamiliar with it and why Russian strategy is dominated by it. It also explains why Russian strategy has been based upon this for so long.

 

[Joe]

You saw this news clip recently?

Kremlin spokesman has admitted huge loss of their own troops:




They're up to at least 10,000 dead by now.