NFL 2026/27

[Admin.]

 

[Holliday 3000]

Detroit saved money on defense by using cardboard cutouts.

 

[Holliday 3000]

7:30 EST, NBC - Notre Dame goes 3-0 on way to National Championship.

I will be fishing this afternoon.

 

[Holliday 3000]

Dame in command early, 10-0 and a pic. Still 1st Q.
. Wrong thread though, right?

 

[Holliday 3000]

NFL favorites cover the spread roughly 48% to 50% of the time long-term (about 48% over a 10-season sample, close to a 50/50 split due to market efficiency). [

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Quick Facts on NFL Spread Coverage

• • Straight-up win rate for favorites: ~66% to 75% (depending on size of spread).
  • Against-the-spread (ATS) rate: ~48%–49% (market makers price lines tightly, landing near coin-flip results).
  • Home vs. away split: Home favorites cover slightly less often (~46–40% in some specific historical slices) compared to baseline expectation, while road/underdog splits shift slightly.
  • Break-even standard: Standard -110 juice requires a 52.38% cover rate to turn a profit, meaning raw 48% cover rates lose money long-term. [
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Breakdown of NFL Betting Metrics

Metric	Historical Average / Rate	Notes
Favorite Win Rate (Straight-Up)	~66.2% – 74.7%	Higher for heavy favorites (-4 or more)
Favorite Cover Rate (ATS)	~48% – 49%	Varies by year (e.g., individual seasons hit ~53.9% rarely)
Break-Even Win Rate (-110 juice)	52.38%	Required to beat standard vig

 

[Holliday 3000]

So what's worth watching today?
. We got KC / Indi later tonight on N Beatle C.

 

[Scooter]

Commanders and Cowboys might be a good one to watch.

 

[Alfred E. Neutrump]

Shocker of a game between the Bears and Vikings. Reggie will be wearing a black armband.

 

[Reggie_Essent]

Shocker of a game between the Bears and Vikings. Reggie will be wearing a black armband.

Fucking cunt Vikings! Caleb pulled a hammie too. Fuck!

 

[Alfred E. Neutrump]

Fucking cunt Vikings! Caleb pulled a hammie too. Fuck!

I heard. Hopefully, he isn't out for long.

 

[Holliday 3000]

Terrible end to the half for Washington.
. Take the points to begin with.
No need to go all or nothing in that situation
but then the injury to Daniels.

 

[Scooter]

Always take the points. That's my motto. Don't get too cute.

 

[Holliday 3000]

Giants / Rams 8:15 Eastern on NBC.
. Rams are -6.5 favs.

Is that too much?
Always a big Matt Stafford fan but I wouldn't mind if he threw a couple of picks tonight.
Go G-Men !

 

[Alfred E. Neutrump]

Giants / Rams 8:15 Eastern on NBC.
. Rams are -6.5 favs.

Is that too much?
Always a big Matt Stafford fan but I wouldn't mind if he threw a couple of picks tonight.
Go G-Men !

Forgive me, but I did pick the Rams and if they win, I finish the weekend at 9-7.

 

[Holliday 3000]

Forgive me, but I did pick the Rams and if they win, I finish the weekend at 9-7.

That's okay. I know it was a cold and calculated decision and not expression of other bias.

 

[Holliday 3000]

Giants / Rams 8:15 Eastern on NBC.
. Rams are -6.5 favs.

Is that too much?
Always a big Matt Stafford fan but I wouldn't mind if he threw a couple of picks tonight.
Go G-Men !

It's on A Beatle C btw.
. Dart down on the first drive...knee injury of some sort.

 

[Reggie_Essent]

It's on A Beatle C btw.
. Dart down on the first drive...knee injury of some sort.

I just turned it on. The Dart kid got hurt already? Sorry, Holli. Sucks when that happens.

But I did pick LA.

 

[Holliday 3000]

I just turned it on. The Dart kid got hurt already? Sorry, Holli. Sucks when that happens.

But I did pick LA.

...and Winnie never threw a catchable ball in relief.
Giants will have to keep it on the ground and now penalty themselves out of FG range.
This is not looking good so far.

 

[Holliday 3000]

Time for Winnie to hang it up.
. WTF?!!!

 

[Reggie_Essent]

Man! You're backup QB totally sucks, Holli.

 

[Holliday 3000]

Man! You're backup QB totally sucks, Holli.

Let me tell you, something is very wrong with him.
I have never seen a QB throw as badly as he is.
Wide open receivers, he can't get the ball to them. WTF?!!!
He needs to come out and the next up gets a chance.

 

[Reggie_Essent]

Let me tell you, something is very wrong with him.
I have never seen a QB throw as badly as he is.
Wide open receivers, he can't get the ball to them. WTF?!!!
He needs to come out and the next up gets a chance.

... and then you get down to the goal line and that Skatterpoo kid - the most exciting player on your team - is standing on the sidelines. Man! Sorry, dude, but your Giants suck AGAIN.

 

[Holliday 3000]

... and then you get down to the goal line and that Skatterpoo kid - the most exciting player on your team - is standing on the sidelines. Man! Sorry, dude, but your Giants suck AGAIN.

Horrible:

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[Scooter]

... and then you get down to the goal line and that Skatterpoo kid - the most exciting player on your team - is standing on the sidelines. Man! Sorry, dude, but your Giants suck AGAIN.

How can they not have Ricard and Skattebo on the field in that situation?

 

[jack]

Forgive me, but I did pick the Rams and if they win, I finish the weekend at 9-7.

I was 13-3 this week.

 

[Alfred E. Neutrump]

I was 13-3 this week.

Damn, you're good.

 

[jack]

Damn, you're good.

Fuck the spread, I bet to win this week, made a few $$$