That can't be discounted; I would guess -- like yours, this is just a guess -- that maybe 10% of those who claim to be "non-binary" or "non-conforming" actually are. The other 90% are teenagers and young adults who have seized upon that claim as a fad. That guess is supported (albeit only anecdotally) by the fact that I've fucked three different "lesbians", two of whom were of the "lipstick lesbian" variety and one of whom was of the "biker dyke" persuasion. (The point being that they weren't actually lesbians, they were bisexuals who just really despised most men.)
OK well I am a rather old dude and not out there putting my dick in anything that is mildly agreeable anymore Smoke Break 2 but I do take one of my step daughters as a perfect example. She claims to be gay or at least bi, but she gets noticeably excited when there is an attractive male around or on TV, not so much with women. She will acknowledge that a woman is attractive and might even comment on it, but she doesn't get that sweaty glazed look that she gets when it is a male. She is currently dating a guy (who I have to admit I really like, he is a good one). The one time she actually got brave enough to try and kiss a girl she said it was "uncomfortable". Now she has shaved almost all of her hair off and dresses in men's or at least men's style clothing, and she binds her boobs down because she would rather endure the discomfort of a heavy binder (and the poor child has some tigole bitties) than have to admit such a gender specific trait in public. The boobs thing I just dunno about, I just don't get that, but the men's clothes and short hair? Duh, Men's clothes are MUCH more comfortable and practical than most women's fashion, and short hair is MUCH easier to deal with than longer hair styles (and let's face it she, like most of her generation, is not willing to put forth an over-abundance of effort on anything). The sad part is she is a physically beautiful young lady. Fair skin, freckles, blue eyes, dark black hair, a very pretty face, a hourglass(ish) figure, and aforementioned tigole bitties. I look at her and think, "Child if you only knew how many gifts you are pissing away, and how much true power you have as an individual, you would kick yourself in the ass". If she would just break from the herd, and put forth a modicum of effort she could be truly stunning. Instead she hides it behind masculine hairstyles and clothes that make her look androgynist at best.
I think it is kind of a perfect storm of benefits that is encouraging teens to be even more confused about their sexuality that we were back in my day, and FFS that shit about drove me mad when I was going through it 35 years ago. Add to that the over sexualized female images that they are bombarded with on an hourly basis only exacerbate a really fucked up time of life to begin with. It also bothers me that the male counter part is not evolving to match the rampant female evolution. Instead of finding their own identity males are being taught (and in many cases bullied) into "reform their male ways", to be ashamed of being male. They wear makeup and feminine clothes, they shun competitive activities, they try to be more like effeminant. It is just sorta sad.
In the long run I guess maybe it goes back to the Nature thing, maybe it is old Mama Earth putting us back in our place. Confused 3