Biological Capacity And The Land Question

[Kingoffrogs]

Once mankind reaches biological capacity, likely after a massive loss of population due to our overshoot of biological capacity (like all other organism's populations do at some point.) there will be an enormous demand for land. In fact, it is quite easy to see that the price of land is contingent upon those who demand it (duh), but also by proxy the amount of people that are alive.

Even if we are able to increase our biological capacity by resorting to higher residential skyscrapers, subterranean dwellings, and perhaps aquatic dwellings as well, the resources on this planet are finite, and cannot support an indefinitely growing human population. Land is also not only finite, but has a fixed supply.

Therefore, my question is 2 pronged.

Firstly: Will the price of land increase until the human population "flatlines"?

Secondly: Once biological capacity is reached, will the price of land be far less volatile than it is now?

 

[Admin.]

Ancient Greeks were pretty sure the world was overpopulated thousands of years ago.

 

[Kingoffrogs]

Ancient Greeks were pretty sure the world was overpopulated thousands of years ago.

This is far different.

First off, they didn't even know about the new world. Second off, their understanding of science and geography is rudimentary compared to what we know now. That wasn't even a part of my proposition. What I DID say is that we will eventually reach biological capacity due to the finite nature of resources and the fixed supply of land. These factors can not sustain the indefinite growth of the human population.

 

[The Prowler]

We will not reach the maximum capacity or the biological capacity.

We will do better with a much lower population.

Price of land will be a trivial concern.

It will be virtually free.

The culling has already started.

 

[Joe]

Therefore, my question is 2 pronged.

Firstly: Will the price of land increase until the human population "flatlines"?

Secondly: Once biological capacity is reached, will the price of land be far less volatile than it is now?

It depends @Kingoffrogs

There appear to be many factors which influence the price of Real Estate & Land. Just because the World population is increasing doesn't mean there's always a corresponding increase in the price of land.

And while some places or cities have experienced dramatic increases (like Vancouver, Canada or San Francisco), others are witnessing massive declines to the point where nobody even wants those homes (ie - rural Italy, Japan & even Germany). The latter where they are declining have aging populations, and the youth like yourself don't want to live in those places, such as the Japanese or Italian countryside. I believe if you went there, you could score yourself a home for $20,000 or less. I think Italy was either charging $1 or even free for old run down homes. However the caveat is they expect you to spend at least $90-100,000 to fix those places up in order to revitalize their local economies.

Not every locale is the same. I'm sure the same is true of the USA. Cheap homes can probably be had in Gary Indiana, but the prices in San Diego continue to go way up in price. It's about supply/demand and where the populations are moving to. Of course, increase in populations particularly the young having children tends to increase the value of homes in an area.

 

[Admin.]

This is far different.

First off, they didn't even know about the new world. Second off, their understanding of science and geography is rudimentary compared to what we know now. That wasn't even a part of my proposition. What I DID say is that we will eventually reach biological capacity due to the finite nature of resources and the fixed supply of land. These factors can not sustain the indefinite growth of the human population.

If you reread your response, you will discover the answer. Science, Technology and Culture for better or worse is always moving...discovery, innovation, adapting to the changes that can be seen happening.

"Improvise, Adapt, Overcome" Gunnery Sgt. Highway USMC

Birth Rates are declining in most of the more economically advanced countries, to the point it is being wondered if that is a problem looking for a cure(No abortion, no birth control etc) And yet technology is advancing at rates that are right now making a lot of people nervous. I'm not yet convinced AI is the end of humanity, but it might shake things up...

 

[LotusBud]

I think the price of land will be the least of our worries when we reach biological capacity, and for some time before.

 

[LotusBud]

It depends @Kingoffrogs

There appear to be many factors which influence the price of Real Estate & Land. Just because the World population is increasing doesn't mean there's always a corresponding increase in the price of land.

And while some places or cities have experienced dramatic increases (like Vancouver, Canada or San Francisco), others are witnessing massive declines to the point where nobody even wants those homes (ie - rural Italy, Japan & even Germany). The latter where they are declining have aging populations, and the youth like yourself don't want to live in those places, such as the Japanese or Italian countryside. I believe if you went there, you could score yourself a home for $20,000 or less. I think Italy was either charging $1 or even free for old run down homes. However the caveat is they expect you to spend at least $90-100,000 to fix those places up in order to revitalize their local economies.

Not every locale is the same. I'm sure the same is true of the USA. Cheap homes can probably be had in Gary Indiana, but the prices in San Diego continue to go way up in price. It's about supply/demand and where the populations are moving to. Of course, increase in populations particularly the young having children tends to increase the value of homes in an area.

Portugal had this issue. Young people leaving villages right and left, lots of empty houses. But interestingly, young people are now coming back to the villages, foreigners are also buying houses there, and Portuguese people are buying second homes in villages, and so prices are going up. I don't even know how one can predict these sorts of vagaries.