NFL Betting Strategy for 2025

[Bastard Factory]

• Bet the UNDER on spreads between 1-and-2.5
  
  • For spreads less than a field goal (2.5 or less) the under was 44-27 last year (61.9% win rate for the under)
  • Over the last 5 years that number is 162-125-3 in favor of the under (56.4%)
  • Last year: 15 games were played with a total of 35.5 or lower and the splits were still in favor of the under: 10-5 Under/Over.

• Bet FAVORITE (spread of 6.5 or less) on games with TOTAL OF 46 POINTS OR HIGHER
  • 67.1% cover rate last year.

• Bet UNDERDOG in games with TOTAL OF 45.5 POINTS OR BELOW
  
  • 56.6% cover rate last 5 years, most common game was a spread of 3-6.5 and total of 41-45.5
  • Extreme low total games (line set at 35.5 or lower): the Underdog came out on top in those games: 8-6-1 ATS.

Ignoring Over/Unders and just betting favorites:

• Bet FAVORITE on spread between -1 and -3.5
  
  • 81-63-8 ATS home and away (last year).

• Bet HOME FAVORITE on spreads between -2.5 and -3.5
  
  • 36-25-3 ATS record for home favorite at -2.5, -3, -3.5 last year
  • -3.5: 10-4-0 (71.4%)
  • -3: 15-14-3 (51.7%)
  • -2.5: 11-7-0 (61.1%)